A Fresh Approach to Forecasting in Astroparticle Physics and Dark Matter Searches

We present a toolbox of new techniques and concepts for the efficient forecasting of experimental sensitivities. These are applicable to a large range of scenarios in (astro-)particle physics, and based on the Fisher information formalism. Fisher information provides an answer to the question what is the maximum extractable information from a given observation?. It is a common tool for the forecasting of experimental sensitivities in many branches of science, but rarely used in astroparticle physics or searches for particle dark matter. After briefly reviewing the Fisher information matrix of general Poisson likelihoods, we propose very compact expressions for estimating expected exclusion and discovery limits (equivalent counts method). We demonstrate by comparison with Monte Carlo results that they remain surprisingly accurate even deep in the Poisson regime. We show how correlated background systematics can be efficiently accounted for by a treatment based on Gaussian random fields. Finally, we introduce the novel concept of Fisher information flux. It can be thought of as a generalization of the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio, while accounting for the non-local properties and saturation effects of background and instrumental uncertainties. It is a powerful and flexible tool ready to be used as core concept for informed strategy development in astroparticle physics and searches for particle dark matter.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

Representing Structural Information of Helical Charge Distributions in Cylindrical Coordinates

Structural information in the local electric field produced by helical charge distributions, such as dissolved DNA, is revealed in a straightforward manner employing cylindrical coordinates. Comparison of structure factors derived in terms of cylindrical and helical coordinates is made. A simple coordinate transformation serves to relate the Green function in cylindrical and helical coordinates. We also compare the electric field on the central axis of a single helix as calculated in both systems.Comment: 11 pages in plain LaTex, no figures. Accepted for publication in PRE March, 199

A Unique Multi-Messenger Signal of QCD Axion Dark Matter

We propose a multi-messenger probe of QCD axion Dark Matter based on observations of black hole-neutron star binary inspirals. It is suggested that a dense Dark Matter spike may grow around intermediate mass black holes ($10^{3}-10^{5} \mathrm{\,M_{\odot}}$). The presence of such a spike produces two unique effects: a distinct phase shift in the gravitational wave strain during the inspiral and an enhancement of the radio emission due to the resonant axion-photon conversion occurring in the neutron star magnetosphere throughout the inspiral and merger. Remarkably, the observation of the gravitational wave signal can be used to infer the Dark Matter density and, consequently, to predict the radio emission. We study the projected reach of the LISA interferometer and next-generation radio telescopes such as the Square Kilometre Array. Given a sufficiently nearby system, such observations will potentially allow for the detection of QCD axion Dark Matter in the mass range $10^{-7}\,\mathrm{eV}$ to $10^{-5}\,\mathrm{eV}$.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Appendix added with additional figures. Updated to published versio

Optimal simulation-based Bayesian decisions

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We leverage recent advances in simulation-based inference and Bayesian optimization to develop active learning schemes to choose where in parameter and action spaces to simulate. This allows us to learn the optimal action in as few simulations as possible. The resulting framework is extremely simulation efficient, typically requiring fewer model calls than the associated posterior inference task alone, and a factor of $100-1000$ more efficient than Monte-Carlo based methods. Our framework opens up new capabilities for performing Bayesian decision making, particularly in the previously challenging regime where likelihoods are intractable, and simulations expensive.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Dark Matter Model or Mass, but Not Both: Assessing Near-Future Direct Searches with Benchmark-free Forecasting

Forecasting the signal discrimination power of dark matter (DM) searches is commonly limited to a set of arbitrary benchmark points. We introduce new methods for benchmark-free forecasting that instead allow an exhaustive exploration and visualization of the phenomenological distinctiveness of DM models, based on standard hypothesis testing. Using this method, we reassess the signal discrimination power of future liquid Xenon and Argon direct DM searches. We quantify the parameter regions where various non-relativistic effective operators, millicharged DM, and magnetic dipole DM can be discriminated, and where upper limits on the DM mass can be found. We find that including an Argon target substantially improves the prospects for reconstructing the DM properties. We also show that only in a small region with DM masses in the range 20-100 GeV and DM-nucleon cross sections a factor of a few below current bounds can near-future Xenon and Argon detectors discriminate both the DM-nucleon interaction and the DM mass simultaneously. In all other regions only one or the other can be obtained.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures + appendices. Code for the calculations throughout the paper can be found at https://github.com/tedwards2412/benchmark_free_forecasting/ . v2: Minor corrections, matches version published in PRL as "Assessing Near-Future Direct Dark Matter Searches with Benchmark-Free Forecasting

New Projections for Dark Matter Searches with Paleo-Detectors

Paleo-detectors are a proposed experimental technique to search for dark matter (DM). In lieu of the conventional approach of operating a tonne-scale real-time detector to search for DM-induced nuclear recoils, paleo-detectors take advantage of small samples of naturally occurring rocks on Earth that have been deep underground ($\gtrsim 5$ km), accumulating nuclear damage tracks from recoiling nuclei for $\mathcal{O}(1)$ Gyr. Modern microscopy techniques promise the capability to read out nuclear damage tracks with nanometer resolution in macroscopic samples. Thanks to their $\mathcal{O}(1)$ Gyr integration times, paleo-detectors could constitute nuclear recoil detectors with keV recoil energy thresholds and 100 kilotonne-yr exposures. This combination would allow paleo-detectors to probe DM-nucleon cross sections orders of magnitude below existing upper limits from conventional direct detection experiments. In this article, we use improved background modeling and a new spectral analysis technique to update the sensitivity forecast for paleo-detectors. We demonstrate the robustness of the sensitivity forecast to the (lack of) ancillary measurements of the age of the samples and the parameters controlling the backgrounds, systematic mismodeling of the spectral shape of the backgrounds, and the radiopurity of the mineral samples. Specifically, we demonstrate that even if the uranium concentration in paleo-detector samples is $10^{-8}$ (per weight), many orders of magnitude larger than what we expect in the most radiopure samples obtained from ultra basic rock or marine evaporite deposits, paleo-detectors could still probe DM-nucleon cross sections below current limits. For DM masses $\lesssim 10$ GeV/$c^2$, the sensitivity of paleo-detectors could still reach down all the way to the conventional neutrino floor in a Xe-based direct detection experiment.Comment: Invited contribution to Instruments "Special Issue Innovative Experimental Techniques for Direct Dark Matter Detection)". 30 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Code available at https://github.com/sbaum90/paleoSpec and https://github.com/sbaum90/paleoSen

Digging for Dark Matter: Spectral Analysis and Discovery Potential of Paleo-Detectors

Paleo-detectors are a recently proposed method for the direct detection of Dark Matter (DM). In such detectors, one would search for the persistent damage features left by DM--nucleus interactions in ancient minerals. Initial sensitivity projections have shown that paleo-detectors could probe much of the remaining Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) parameter space. In this paper, we improve upon the cut-and-count approach previously used to estimate the sensitivity by performing a full spectral analysis of the background- and DM-induced signal spectra. We consider two scenarios for the systematic errors on the background spectra: i) systematic errors on the normalization only, and ii) systematic errors on the shape of the backgrounds. We find that the projected sensitivity is rather robust to imperfect knowledge of the backgrounds. Finally, we study how well the parameters of the true WIMP model could be reconstructed in the hypothetical case of a WIMP discovery.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, code available at https://github.com/tedwards2412/paleo_detectors/ . v2: Added additional analysis theory details, matches version published in PR

Transient Radio Signatures from Neutron Star Encounters with QCD Axion Miniclusters

The QCD axion is expected to form dense structures known as axion miniclusters if the Peccei-Quinn symmetry is broken after inflation. Miniclusters that have survived until today will interact with neutron stars (NSs) in the Milky Way to produce transient radio signals from axion-photon conversion in the NS magnetosphere. We quantify the properties of these encounters and find that they occur frequently ($\mathcal{O}(1-100)\,\mathrm{day}^{-1}$); last between a day and a few months; are spatially clustered towards the Galactic center; and can reach observable fluxes. These radio transients are within reach of current generation telescopes and therefore offer a promising pathway to discovering QCD axion dark matter.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures. Code is available online at https://github.com/bradkav/axion-miniclusters/ (archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4006128 ). Joint submission with "Stellar Disruption of Axion Miniclusters in the Milky Way" in astro-ph (arXiv:2011.05377). Updated to match published versio